Independents Favor Dems

Independents are favoring Democrats over Republicans by 2 to 1 in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. The Carpetbagger Report notes:

Independents have effectively given up on the GOP's agenda altogether—by a 2 to 1 margin they believe the war in Iraq is not worth fighting, and by a 3 to 1 margin, they disapprove of Congress' job performance and the direction of the country. Moreover, these same voters place the blame for the nation's problems squarely on the Bush White House and congressional Republicans. Independents also trust Dems over the GOP to address terrorism by 14 points.

It's worth noting, of course, that independents appear to be moving towards Dems almost by default—they're voting against the GOP. Nevertheless, it highlights why the right is in such a panic—all the Republicans have left is a far-right base, and even the base isn't exactly thrilled.

In fact, while 95% of Democrats say they will support Democratic candidates for the House, only 88% of Republicans say they will support Republican candidates for the House.

The new USA Today/Gallup Poll finds what may be the key to the Democrats' success, aside from Republican failtures: "voters are more focused on national issues than in any previous congressional election."

For months, Rep. Tom Reynolds, head of the National Republican Congressional Committee and who himself is in a tough race, has insisted that GOP candidates would survive a difficult political landscape because House elections traditionally turn on local issues, not national ones.

However, in the new poll, 43% of likely voters say national issues will make the biggest difference in their vote; 24% say local or state issues. That's the first overwhelming edge for national issues since the question was first asked in a Times Mirror poll in 1994.

TCR says "the Dem strategy of nationalizing the election cycle has largely been a success." That, and "Even the people who desperately want to see same-sex marriage and abortion banned nationally know that it's not a battle worth fighting when the country's falling to shit."

In any case, it's looking good for the Dems two weeks before the election.

(Crossposted at AlterNet PEEK.)