The future's not so bright that you gotta wear shades

A little gloom to go with the weather here in St. Louis, courtesy of Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Juan Cole linked today to an interview with Der Spiegel in which Haass paints a worrisome picture of the Middle East mess which George Bush has bequeathed America and the world:

SPIEGEL: So what will become of the region?

Haass: Visions of a new Middle East that is peaceful, prosperous and democratic will not be realized. Much more likely is the emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself and the world. Iran will be a powerful state in the region, a classical imperial power. No viable peace process between Israel and the Palestinians is likely for the foreseeable future. Militias will emerge throughout the region, terrorism will grow in sophistication, tensions between Sunni and Shia will increase, causing problems in countries with divided societies, such as Bahrain, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Islam will fill the political and intellectual vacuum. Iraq at best will remain messy for years to come, with a weak central government, a divided society and sectarian violence. At worst, it will become a failed state racked by all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors.

SPIEGEL: How long will this dangerous period last?

Haass: I don't know if this will last for five or 50 years, but it's going to be an incredibly difficult era. Together with managing a dynamic Asia it will be the primary challenge for US foreign policy.

The title of the article says it bluntly: "Iraq Is Not Winnable." It's a sobering piece, but it at least has the benefit of being reality-based...which is more than you can say for American foreign policy over the last six years.

In the meantime, as noted earlier by Paul: "up to" one hundred and fifty people kidnapped in Baghdad in one fell swoop. Just another example of the miracles we're seeing in Iraq these days.

(Cross-posted.)