The Latest in Ukraine

[Content Note: War.]

Following the violent protests in Ukraine which culminated in the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych's government and the installation of an interim team, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops into the Crimean peninsula in eastern Ukraine, in a bid to seize back the region, where most of the population is ethnic Russian and there is some support for rejoining the Russian state.

An anonymous senior official with the Obama administration reports: "Russian forces now have complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula."

So now the international community has to decide what it's going to do, and NATO is looking to the US and President Obama to take the lead.

There is no serious talk of military intervention, because no one is keen to go to war with nuclear Russia, but there are various degrees of non-military response, some of which are more aggressive and provocative than others.
Working the telephone from the Oval Office, Mr. Obama rallied allies, agreed to send Secretary of State John Kerry to Kiev and approved a series of diplomatic and economic moves intended to "make it hurt," as one administration official put it. But the president found himself besieged by advice to take more assertive action.

"Create a democratic noose around Putin's Russia," urged Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina. "Revisit the missile defense shield," suggested Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida. "Cancel Sochi," argued Representative Mike Rogers, the Michigan Republican who leads the Intelligence Committee, referring to the Group of 8 summit meeting to be hosted by President Vladimir V. Putin. Kick "him out of the G-8" altogether, said Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the Democratic whip.

The Russian occupation of Crimea has challenged Mr. Obama as has no other international crisis, and at its heart, the advice seemed to pose the same question: Is Mr. Obama tough enough to take on the former K.G.B. colonel in the Kremlin? It is no easy task. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said.

...No significant political leaders in Washington urged a military response, but many wanted Mr. Obama to go further than he has so far. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, has already devised language to serve as the basis for possible bipartisan legislation outlining a forceful response, including sanctions against Russia and economic support for Ukraine.

The president has spoken out against Mr. Putin's actions and termed them a "breach of international law." But he has left the harshest condemnations to Mr. Kerry, who on Sunday called them a "brazen act of aggression" and "a stunning willful choice by President Putin," accusing him of "weakness" and "desperation."

In addition to Ms. Merkel, Mr. Obama spoke with his counterparts from Britain and Poland on Sunday and won agreement from all the other G-8 countries to suspend preparations for the Sochi meeting and find ways to shore up the economically fragile Ukrainian government. The administration also canceled a trade mission to Moscow and a Russian trip to Washington to discuss energy while vowing to also scrap a naval-cooperation meeting with Russia.

...While Mr. Obama has not gone as far as many in Washington want him to go, the president has been less focused on immediate actions than on making sure he and America's traditional allies are on the same page. Working from the Oval Office over the weekend, wearing jeans and a scowl, he called several of his G-8 counterparts to "make sure everybody's in lock step with what we're doing and saying," according to a top aide.
I'm relieved to have a president who does not think the United States can or should "go it alone" in foreign policy, and instead makes a serious effort to coordinate meaningfully with the international community.

Kicking Putin out of the G-8 might be a sticking point, as Germany has "publicly expressed opposition to expulsion," but I trust that Obama and Merkel will find effective agreement moving forward. I hope so, anyway.

The truth is, there is no bigger threat to a reasonable solution than Putin. I am, quite frankly, significantly less concerned about what sort of action will be proposed by US-European allies than I am about what bullshit he's going to pull next.

In the meantime, I am thinking of all Ukrainians, and wish them safety and peace.

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