"A Turning Point"

Background: Trump Launches Trade War with Canada, Mexico, EU.

Trudeau describes this as "a turning point in the Canada-U.S. relationship."

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) May 31, 2018

Every day there's something that feels like a real lurch toward The End, but Trudeau saying that this is a turning point in US-Canada relations feels pretty fucking heavy.

— Melissa McEwan (@Shakestweetz) May 31, 2018

This thread by Jasmin Mujanović is a pretty terrific short explanation of why I'm feeling so grim about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's totally understandable comments regarding the state of U.S.-Canada relations after Donald Trump launched a trade war with Canada today:

I fear even people who really should know better are in denial about the damage that is being done. Even if Trump & everyone else steps back from the brink of a global trade war, these are massive body blows to the integrity of what remains of liberal internationalism.

— Jasmin Mujanović (@JasminMuj) May 31, 2018

When your closest neighbor & most steadfast ally, w a tenth of your population, slaps 16 billion dollars worth of tariffs on your goods something has gone catastrophically wrong. And that CDN officials have explicitly invoked CAN's military contributions is also noteworthy.

— Jasmin Mujanović (@JasminMuj) May 31, 2018

My point is, there are daily affronts and scandals with this administration and it's hard to keep track of it all. But today may have been a genuine historical turning point. This is the end of an epoch and I, for one, am genuinely frightening of the future that awaits. /xxx

— Jasmin Mujanović (@JasminMuj) May 31, 2018

And then there is this: A fundamental break in relations between the United States and Canada serves the Kremlin's interests and agenda, in a number of ways.

For one, it leaves Canada incredibly vulnerable, if its more populated and militarily stronger neighbor to the south is no longer an ally.

Under Putin's leadership, just in the past few years, Russia has annexed Crimea, made multilple military incursions into Ukraine, and forced Sweden onto a war footing, where it remains two years later.

There is no question that Putin, who declared the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century," has dreams of expanding the Russian empire once again. The Nordic countries are in grave danger in a full-scale collapse of U.S.-Canada relations that exposes Canada, with the longest coastline among all of the countries of the world, to Russian control.

I'm aware that sounds like something that could never happen, especially in a world where we've told ourselves that "traditional warfare" is over.

It could happen.

Putin has a goal of destabilization for a reason. And anyone who imagines that he wouldn't conspire to use military force to mount a classic invasion in today's world hasn't been paying attention. Not for the last few years, and not back to the very start of his rule: Although the Russo-Georgian War didn't officially start until August of 2008, Putin laid the groundwork from nearly the moment he took office.

Vladimir Putin became president of the Russian Federation in 2000, which had a profound impact on Russo-Georgian relations. The conflict between Russia and Georgia began to escalate in December 2000, when Georgia became the first and only member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on which the Russian visa regime was imposed.

I am not saying this is what will happen; I'm saying this is what could happen. Because what Trump did today was truly seismic. No matter how much the political press may want to pretend it's just business as usual.

It is not.